Discussion:
Big storm!
(too old to reply)
HRM Resident
2018-01-03 14:46:16 UTC
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Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!

Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus a
generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite awhile .
. . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it always was
because we've had some near misses over the past number of years. Looks
like it is our turn this time. It *might* track slightly closer to
Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire mainland is in for it.

Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.

Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.

Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
--
HRM Resident
jvangurp
2018-01-03 15:05:16 UTC
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Post by HRM Resident
Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!
Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus a
generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite awhile .
. . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it always was
because we've had some near misses over the past number of years. Looks
like it is our turn this time. It *might* track slightly closer to
Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire mainland is in for it.
Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.
Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
--
HRM Resident
I'm not sure if the storms are actually worse than they were in the past or not. My gut feeling is that they are, but I don't have any hard and fast data to back that up. I think one phenomenon we are experiencing is that through instant communication and social media, there's a fair bit more hype before a storm than there had been in the past. So we get bombarded with warnings and weather alerts and public service announcement to stock up on water and food and so on.

As far as climate change goes, my own feeling is that we have gone way beyond the point where any of this can be fixed unless something like half the population of the earth all dies tomorrow. And by half the population, I mean the rich half, which would be Europe and North America mostly. We are the ones that are consuming and using all the resources that result in greenhouse gas emissions. I think we've got some pretty catastrophic social and political upheaval coming very very soon.

Well I'm almost 60 so it's not going to be a huge issue for me personally but I feel sorry for 20-year-olds. Then again, they will adapt and adopt and get through it just like previous generations got through major Wars and so on. Well, that's a fucking cheerful post! lmao

John
HRM Resident
2018-01-03 15:34:58 UTC
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Post by jvangurp
Post by HRM Resident
Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!
Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus a
generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite awhile .
. . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it always was
because we've had some near misses over the past number of years. Looks
like it is our turn this time. It *might* track slightly closer to
Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire mainland is in for it.
Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.
Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
--
HRM Resident
I'm not sure if the storms are actually worse than they were in the past or not. My gut feeling is that they are, but I don't have any hard and fast data to back that up. I think one phenomenon we are experiencing is that through instant communication and social media, there's a fair bit more hype before a storm than there had been in the past. So we get bombarded with warnings and weather alerts and public service announcement to stock up on water and food and so on.
Indeed. We are certainly bombarded by 24/7 "news" from many
different sources. We have far too many news channels on TV and far too
many web sites and social media things spinning the "news" all over the
place. I recall seen an interview with Don Tremaine (anyone remember
him?) around the time CNN started. He said there simply wasn't enough
news in the world to fill a 24-hour broadcast. I never forgot that, and
now that we have 7-8 24/7 "news" channels, all they do is report the
same stories every hour and call in various "experts" to tell us what it
means.

I think the worst offender was CNN's Richard Quest. He hasn't been
around for over a year, but he was their "expert" on everything. Plane
crash? We'll call in out aviation expert Richard Quest to explain what
it means. Stock market crashed? We'll call in out economics expert
Richard Quest to explain what it means. Election results? We'll call
in out political expert Richard Quest to explain what it means. Someone
in Burma had a stroke? We'll call in out medical expert Richard Quest
to explain what it means. I think Richard Quest was just a Google
expert, no better than the rest of us! :-)
Post by jvangurp
As far as climate change goes, my own feeling is that we have gone way beyond the point where any of this can be fixed unless something like half the population of the earth all dies tomorrow. And by half the population, I mean the rich half, which would be Europe and North America mostly. We are the ones that are consuming and using all the resources that result in greenhouse gas emissions. I think we've got some pretty catastrophic social and political upheaval coming very very soon.
100% agree. The bubonic plague culled the herd quite well. WW I
and WW II hardly made a dent. So we "need" something horrific to reset
things, regrettably. An out of control plague, a nuclear exchange or an
impact from a meteor or other celestial body would do it.
Post by jvangurp
Well I'm almost 60 so it's not going to be a huge issue for me personally but I feel sorry for 20-year-olds. Then again, they will adapt and adopt and get through it just like previous generations got through major Wars and so on. Well, that's a fucking cheerful post! lmao
I'm past 60, and like you, I'm optimistic things will hold together
for the rest of my days . . . but you are right. A 20 year old with a
life expectancy of 80 or so is in for a huge problem sometime in the
next 60 years. And yeah, we in the West are living high on the hog
right now, but that's gonna change big time. Let's hope it takes about
30-40 years!
--
HRM Resident
Mike Small
2018-01-03 22:07:15 UTC
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Post by HRM Resident
Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!
Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus
a generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite
awhile . . . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it
always was because we've had some near misses over the past number of
years. Looks like it is our turn this time. It *might* track
slightly closer to Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire
mainland is in for it.
Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.
Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
My sense after reading some of Kerry Emanuel's web site was that we're
probably off base a bit to attribute particular storms, perhaps even
particular sets of storms, to climate change. It's a problem of the
subset of storms that make landfall in a particular year being too small
compared to the total number of storms globally, the bulk of which never
reach land, over longer time periods. As Trump predictably does not
understand (or pretends not to, if you want to give more credit than
he's probably due) climate change is about global averages and over the
long term, not about particular weather events in one part of the world
over a number of weeks. Emanuel has a paper showing a clear trend for
all storms, including open ocean storms that never hit land, over a long
time frame, but for a given storm season can only make statements about
probability not causation. It's perhaps precision that's only the habit
of scientists but maybe we should all learn to think with that level of
precision, since those who make a habit or even a living out of
composing "truthy" sounding counterarguments can use this kind of
imprecision against us.

First, here's a recent summary of one of his talks:

http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921

Read carefully, because he's talking first about what will happen later
in the century and expresses the most ire re. short term problems for
the U.S. insurance policies way of encouraging development where storms
may hit. This much is uncontroversial and doesn't need difficult science
to demonstrate.

Here are graphs from a paper of his showing an increasing "cyclone
power" trend:

https://emanuel.mit.edu/papers-data-and-graphics-pertaining-tropical-cyclone-trends-and-variability

Note that the dataset is cylcones anywhere, not only those hitting land
or particularly hitting land that would be mentioned on either of our
evening news programs.

Somewhere on his site there is also a statement about the stupidity of a
statement like, "climate change caused Katrina," but I can't find it
right now. I think it was in a FAQ of some kind, perhaps in his primer.

http://emanuel.mit.edu/

Still, in the first link I cite above, towards the end, he does make
this fairly strong statement about probabilities:

"For the near term, Emanuel said that U.S. rainfall events as intense
as that produced by hurricane Harvey, which had about a 1 percent annual
likelihood in the 1990s, has already increased in likelihood to about 6
percent annually, and by 2090 could be about 18 percent."

So you could say what you think you notice is at least consistent with
these higher probabilities. On the other hand we could easily have a
lull in such storms, given the same probabilities. If we are sloppy in
our thinking, Exxon's band of professional liars could use such an
outcome to assure us that we don't have to give up driving and flying in
airplanes any time soon, that the trend is other than what it really is.
--
Mike Small
***@sdf.org
MYOB@home.com
2018-01-04 03:30:31 UTC
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Post by HRM Resident
Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!
Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus a
generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite awhile .
. . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it always was
because we've had some near misses over the past number of years. Looks
like it is our turn this time. It *might* track slightly closer to
Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire mainland is in for it.
Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.
Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
--
HRM Resident
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's precisely what we will have to do.
Mike Spencer
2018-01-04 05:45:41 UTC
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Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment
dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is
not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Forty years ago, I didn't have electricity at all. If a storm didn't
damage the house (and none ever did) all was well as far as I could
tell.

But 30 or 40 years ago, people with big ornamental trees in their
front yards had to go head to head with the powerco to prevent them
being felled or butchered into ugly stalks because the powerco was
making a practice of ensuring that power lines were not overhung by
trees or large branches, making sure that they didn't grow up to
shroud power lines.

Now, starting right in front of my house and intermittently for miles
in several directions, power lines are completely hidden in conifer
growth, overhung by deciduous trees. Conifers hold damp snow or
become iced up, thrash in the wind. Deciduous trees, albeit without
leaves this time of year, lose dead or weakened branches. Short-lived
firs growing up under power lines die and then just blow over, weak
enough at the base to do so but plenty strong to pull down lines.

Power poles themselves *can* break but they have little surface to the
wind and are remarkably strong even when 50 years old and looking
decrepit on the surface. But if enough trees or limbs fall on the
lines, *then* poles can be pulled over, which then try to pull down
their neighbors.

Externalize internal diseconomies. Storm damage repair is cheaper
than year-round maintenance. The cost difference is an "internal
diseconomy" externalized to the public.

And just to keep you on edge, consider the consequences of an outage
that lasted *years*, the possible outcome of an intentional attack on
the North American grid or a re-run of the Carrington Event.

I looked up some sat pics of the big storm, similar in meteorological
nature to what's said to be coming our way, that hit Dutch Harbor in
the Aleutians last year. Wrfhf shpx, nasty storm.

We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.

And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
--
Mike Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada
MYOB@home.com
2018-01-04 11:52:26 UTC
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Post by Mike Spencer
Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment
dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is
not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Forty years ago, I didn't have electricity at all. If a storm didn't
damage the house (and none ever did) all was well as far as I could
tell.
But 30 or 40 years ago, people with big ornamental trees in their
front yards had to go head to head with the powerco to prevent them
being felled or butchered into ugly stalks because the powerco was
making a practice of ensuring that power lines were not overhung by
trees or large branches, making sure that they didn't grow up to
shroud power lines.
Now, starting right in front of my house and intermittently for miles
in several directions, power lines are completely hidden in conifer
growth, overhung by deciduous trees. Conifers hold damp snow or
become iced up, thrash in the wind. Deciduous trees, albeit without
leaves this time of year, lose dead or weakened branches. Short-lived
firs growing up under power lines die and then just blow over, weak
enough at the base to do so but plenty strong to pull down lines.
Power poles themselves *can* break but they have little surface to the
wind and are remarkably strong even when 50 years old and looking
decrepit on the surface. But if enough trees or limbs fall on the
lines, *then* poles can be pulled over, which then try to pull down
their neighbors.
Externalize internal diseconomies. Storm damage repair is cheaper
than year-round maintenance. The cost difference is an "internal
diseconomy" externalized to the public.
And just to keep you on edge, consider the consequences of an outage
that lasted *years*, the possible outcome of an intentional attack on
the North American grid or a re-run of the Carrington Event.
I looked up some sat pics of the big storm, similar in meteorological
nature to what's said to be coming our way, that hit Dutch Harbor in
the Aleutians last year. Wrfhf shpx, nasty storm.
We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.
And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
--
Mike Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada
You missed the point. Just saying you're fortunate to be able to hunker down and ride it out until power is restored. NOT depending on electricity puts people at an advantage at times like this. Forward to 2018 and there are seniors, persons with disabilities, etc. who ARE dependent on electricity some for their very lives. Instead of a lengthy missive about the "bad old days", economic factors, your explanation of how power failures happen, etc., stop for just aminute and think of the human factor. Not sure why you feel the need to "keep me on edge" as you say but you might want to walk in my moccasins (and I'm not so self centered to think that I'm the only one is this situation)and can the attitude.

Don't bother replying. As soon as I post this, I'm unsubbing from the group. Of course, I have NO doubt that that will prevent you from doing what this group does so well.....judging people
HRM Resident
2018-01-04 13:39:17 UTC
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Post by ***@home.com
Post by Mike Spencer
Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment
dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is
not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Forty years ago, I didn't have electricity at all. If a storm didn't
damage the house (and none ever did) all was well as far as I could
tell.
But 30 or 40 years ago, people with big ornamental trees in their
front yards had to go head to head with the powerco to prevent them
being felled or butchered into ugly stalks because the powerco was
making a practice of ensuring that power lines were not overhung by
trees or large branches, making sure that they didn't grow up to
shroud power lines.
Now, starting right in front of my house and intermittently for miles
in several directions, power lines are completely hidden in conifer
growth, overhung by deciduous trees. Conifers hold damp snow or
become iced up, thrash in the wind. Deciduous trees, albeit without
leaves this time of year, lose dead or weakened branches. Short-lived
firs growing up under power lines die and then just blow over, weak
enough at the base to do so but plenty strong to pull down lines.
Power poles themselves *can* break but they have little surface to the
wind and are remarkably strong even when 50 years old and looking
decrepit on the surface. But if enough trees or limbs fall on the
lines, *then* poles can be pulled over, which then try to pull down
their neighbors.
Externalize internal diseconomies. Storm damage repair is cheaper
than year-round maintenance. The cost difference is an "internal
diseconomy" externalized to the public.
And just to keep you on edge, consider the consequences of an outage
that lasted *years*, the possible outcome of an intentional attack on
the North American grid or a re-run of the Carrington Event.
I looked up some sat pics of the big storm, similar in meteorological
nature to what's said to be coming our way, that hit Dutch Harbor in
the Aleutians last year. Wrfhf shpx, nasty storm.
We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.
And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
--
Mike Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada
You missed the point. Just saying you're fortunate to be able to hunker down and ride it out until power is restored. NOT depending on electricity puts people at an advantage at times like this. Forward to 2018 and there are seniors, persons with disabilities, etc. who ARE dependent on electricity some for their very lives. Instead of a lengthy missive about the "bad old days", economic factors, your explanation of how power failures happen, etc., stop for just aminute and think of the human factor. Not sure why you feel the need to "keep me on edge" as you say but you might want to walk in my moccasins (and I'm not so self centered to think that I'm the only one is this situation)and can the attitude.
Don't bother replying. As soon as I post this, I'm unsubbing from the group. Of course, I have NO doubt that that will prevent you from doing what this group does so well.....judging people
What's wrong with you? We are all staring down the barrel of a
winter hurricane and you throw a snowball at one of our best posters and
then run in the house and lock the door! It's not the first time you
terminated a thread in the same way. After you stop sulking for
whatever reason, you'll be back . . . at least you were the last 4-5
times you took a similar hissy fit.

We all are in the same mess. We can't control the weather. Yes,
some of us are better prepared that you are . . . in some ways . . . I
have no water other than what I put in buckets this AM. Is the Halifax
peninsula out of water when the power goes out? If I can't keep my
house above freezing Friday night, I'm in for a HUGE plumbing bill on
top of the water damage. Does your landlord offload plumbing repair
responsibility and bills to you? My point is we all have a huge
inconvenience coming at best, possibly a lot worse than 'inconvenience.'
During Juan I had no power for 13 days . . . how long was yours out?
Storms do no treat us all equally.

I don't see why you need to get on here and insult those you are
predicting they might be better off in some aspects than you are. No
one is judging you . . . I'm just confused why your potential problems
with this storm are worse than everyone else's. And yes, I know you
have a medical dependant based on your years of posting here . . . I
understand that's a cause for increased stress that I really can't
imagine. I sure hope you and he emerge from this unscathed. Really, I
do. But remember, no one here caused this storm and we're all in this
together, pulling for each other's well being . . . ESPECIALLY you and
Kevin.
--
HRM Resident
l***@fl.it
2018-01-04 14:53:11 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by ***@home.com
Post by Mike Spencer
We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.
And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
--
Mike Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada
You missed the point. Just saying you're fortunate to be able to hunker down and ride it out until power is restored. NOT depending on electricity puts people at an advantage at times like this. Forward to 2018 and there are seniors, persons with disabilities, etc. who ARE dependent on electricity some for their very lives. Instead of a lengthy missive about the "bad old days", economic factors, your explanation of how power failures happen, etc., stop for just aminute and think of the human factor. Not sure why you feel the need to "keep me on edge" as you say but you might want to walk in my moccasins (and I'm not so self centered to think that I'm the only one is this situation)and can the attitude.
Don't bother replying. As soon as I post this, I'm unsubbing from the group. Of course, I have NO doubt that that will prevent you from doing what this group does so well.....judging people
Donna! You are doing the judging! Mike is very nice and kindly, you
mistake his type of irony I think. I hope you are still reading,
which I think you probably are, this is a totally unfair
characterization.

I will admit sometimes Mike gets terribly technical and my eyes glaze
over but I realise others enjoy it :)
jvangurp
2018-01-05 20:38:49 UTC
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Raw Message
Post by ***@home.com
Post by Mike Spencer
Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment
dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is
not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Forty years ago, I didn't have electricity at all. If a storm didn't
damage the house (and none ever did) all was well as far as I could
tell.
But 30 or 40 years ago, people with big ornamental trees in their
front yards had to go head to head with the powerco to prevent them
being felled or butchered into ugly stalks because the powerco was
making a practice of ensuring that power lines were not overhung by
trees or large branches, making sure that they didn't grow up to
shroud power lines.
Now, starting right in front of my house and intermittently for miles
in several directions, power lines are completely hidden in conifer
growth, overhung by deciduous trees. Conifers hold damp snow or
become iced up, thrash in the wind. Deciduous trees, albeit without
leaves this time of year, lose dead or weakened branches. Short-lived
firs growing up under power lines die and then just blow over, weak
enough at the base to do so but plenty strong to pull down lines.
Power poles themselves *can* break but they have little surface to the
wind and are remarkably strong even when 50 years old and looking
decrepit on the surface. But if enough trees or limbs fall on the
lines, *then* poles can be pulled over, which then try to pull down
their neighbors.
Externalize internal diseconomies. Storm damage repair is cheaper
than year-round maintenance. The cost difference is an "internal
diseconomy" externalized to the public.
And just to keep you on edge, consider the consequences of an outage
that lasted *years*, the possible outcome of an intentional attack on
the North American grid or a re-run of the Carrington Event.
I looked up some sat pics of the big storm, similar in meteorological
nature to what's said to be coming our way, that hit Dutch Harbor in
the Aleutians last year. Wrfhf shpx, nasty storm.
We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.
And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
--
Mike Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada
You missed the point. Just saying you're fortunate to be able to hunker down and ride it out until power is restored. NOT depending on electricity puts people at an advantage at times like this. Forward to 2018 and there are seniors, persons with disabilities, etc. who ARE dependent on electricity some for their very lives. Instead of a lengthy missive about the "bad old days", economic factors, your explanation of how power failures happen, etc., stop for just aminute and think of the human factor. Not sure why you feel the need to "keep me on edge" as you say but you might want to walk in my moccasins (and I'm not so self centered to think that I'm the only one is this situation)and can the attitude.
Don't bother replying. As soon as I post this, I'm unsubbing from the group. Of course, I have NO doubt that that will prevent you from doing what this group does so well.....judging people
HUH???? That read like a normal and interesting discussion to me. You have mis-interpreted Mike's post, by a country mile.
John
l***@fl.it
2018-01-04 13:08:45 UTC
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Raw Message
On 04 Jan 2018 01:45:41 -0400, Mike Spencer
Post by Mike Spencer
Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment
dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is
not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Forty years ago, I didn't have electricity at all. If a storm didn't
damage the house (and none ever did) all was well as far as I could
tell.
But 30 or 40 years ago, people with big ornamental trees in their
front yards had to go head to head with the powerco to prevent them
being felled or butchered into ugly stalks because the powerco was
making a practice of ensuring that power lines were not overhung by
trees or large branches, making sure that they didn't grow up to
shroud power lines.
Now, starting right in front of my house and intermittently for miles
in several directions, power lines are completely hidden in conifer
growth, overhung by deciduous trees. Conifers hold damp snow or
become iced up, thrash in the wind. Deciduous trees, albeit without
leaves this time of year, lose dead or weakened branches. Short-lived
firs growing up under power lines die and then just blow over, weak
enough at the base to do so but plenty strong to pull down lines.
You've noticed :) Before NSP almalgamated with Emera I knew someone
who made his living pruning trees for NSP, soon as Emera was in the
bag his was one of the first contracts not renewed 'they could not see
the necessity of year round pruning' - they should also have taken a
close look at things about four years after Juan. Many trees that
were still standing slowly died and were standing there waiting to
drop on the power lines.
Post by Mike Spencer
Power poles themselves *can* break but they have little surface to the
wind and are remarkably strong even when 50 years old and looking
decrepit on the surface. But if enough trees or limbs fall on the
lines, *then* poles can be pulled over, which then try to pull down
their neighbors.
Externalize internal diseconomies. Storm damage repair is cheaper
than year-round maintenance. The cost difference is an "internal
diseconomy" externalized to the public.
And just to keep you on edge, consider the consequences of an outage
that lasted *years*, the possible outcome of an intentional attack on
the North American grid or a re-run of the Carrington Event.
I looked up some sat pics of the big storm, similar in meteorological
nature to what's said to be coming our way, that hit Dutch Harbor in
the Aleutians last year. Wrfhf shpx, nasty storm.
We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.
And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
HRM Resident
2018-01-04 13:23:17 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by l***@fl.it
On 04 Jan 2018 01:45:41 -0400, Mike Spencer
Post by Mike Spencer
Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment
dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is
not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's
precisely what we will have to do.
Forty years ago, I didn't have electricity at all. If a storm didn't
damage the house (and none ever did) all was well as far as I could
tell.
But 30 or 40 years ago, people with big ornamental trees in their
front yards had to go head to head with the powerco to prevent them
being felled or butchered into ugly stalks because the powerco was
making a practice of ensuring that power lines were not overhung by
trees or large branches, making sure that they didn't grow up to
shroud power lines.
Now, starting right in front of my house and intermittently for miles
in several directions, power lines are completely hidden in conifer
growth, overhung by deciduous trees. Conifers hold damp snow or
become iced up, thrash in the wind. Deciduous trees, albeit without
leaves this time of year, lose dead or weakened branches. Short-lived
firs growing up under power lines die and then just blow over, weak
enough at the base to do so but plenty strong to pull down lines.
You've noticed :) Before NSP almalgamated with Emera I knew someone
who made his living pruning trees for NSP, soon as Emera was in the
bag his was one of the first contracts not renewed 'they could not see
the necessity of year round pruning' - they should also have taken a
close look at things about four years after Juan. Many trees that
were still standing slowly died and were standing there waiting to
drop on the power lines.
It's more profitable to fix the damage afterwards than prune all
the trees around the power lines in advance. Only a few are going to
fall compared to all the ones in the condition Mike described. You can
bet this was analysed from afar by rich executives and that's the
decision they made to maximise the profit for their shareholders. We
pay for the inconvenience and they then squeal to the public utilities
board for a rate increase to "cover the damage."
Post by l***@fl.it
Post by Mike Spencer
Power poles themselves *can* break but they have little surface to the
wind and are remarkably strong even when 50 years old and looking
decrepit on the surface. But if enough trees or limbs fall on the
lines, *then* poles can be pulled over, which then try to pull down
their neighbors.
Externalize internal diseconomies. Storm damage repair is cheaper
than year-round maintenance. The cost difference is an "internal
diseconomy" externalized to the public.
And just to keep you on edge, consider the consequences of an outage
that lasted *years*, the possible outcome of an intentional attack on
the North American grid or a re-run of the Carrington Event.
I looked up some sat pics of the big storm, similar in meteorological
nature to what's said to be coming our way, that hit Dutch Harbor in
the Aleutians last year. Wrfhf shpx, nasty storm.
We have wood heat, a generator, a backup generator, get water without
electricity. Biggest downside from the last power outage was that our
bedroom is unheated so loss of electric blanket at 6F (-14C) was a
bother. Gen set is too noisy and too fuel-hungry to run all night just
for electric blankets.
And now back to your usual cheerful programming... :-)
--
HRM Resident
l***@fl.it
2018-01-04 13:04:18 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by ***@home.com
Post by HRM Resident
Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!
Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus a
generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite awhile .
. . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it always was
because we've had some near misses over the past number of years. Looks
like it is our turn this time. It *might* track slightly closer to
Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire mainland is in for it.
Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.
Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
--
HRM Resident
You're VERY fortunate to have a heater and generator. Apartment dwellers are SOL. Sleeping in snow suits after a day in the dark is not appealing but, if the outage goes more than 24 hours, that's precisely what we will have to do.
Yes we are lucky that way, we have a generator that takes over to
maintain the hall lights, elevators, garage doors. We have been
heating with gas for about five years now, so those furnaces work
courtesy of the generator I suppose. The cost of the generator
seemed astronomical at the time but it's been worth it. For some
reason it leaves one plug working in the kitchen in my unit :)
Mike Spencer
2018-01-04 16:17:38 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by l***@fl.it
Yes we are lucky that way, we have a generator that takes over to
maintain the hall lights, elevators, garage doors. We have been
heating with gas for about five years now, so those furnaces work
courtesy of the generator I suppose. The cost of the generator
seemed astronomical at the time but it's been worth it.
So, you're in a condo and the condo association installed the
generator for the whole building/complex? Annoying bill or surcharge
on fees but excellent wisdom. Next piece of wisdom: someone diligent
and reliable who is tasked with starting the gen set periodically,
checking for expected power output, checking that fuel is topped up
and (if gasoline) not deteriorating, that set remains safe from
flooding or other gradual defects.

The snake skin in my gen set was evidence that I should have been
checking it more often. Last check-up & test run was back in late
October. The Computer Risks Digest has recurring stories about backup
generators for businesses or data processing centres that went
untested or inadequately secured from water for years, then failed
when needed.
Post by l***@fl.it
For some reason it leaves one plug working in the kitchen in my unit
:)
Basic Nova Scotia essentials, eh? Electric tea kettle, reading lamp.
--
Mike Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada
l***@fl.it
2018-01-04 16:58:38 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
On 04 Jan 2018 12:17:38 -0400, Mike Spencer
Post by Mike Spencer
Post by l***@fl.it
Yes we are lucky that way, we have a generator that takes over to
maintain the hall lights, elevators, garage doors. We have been
heating with gas for about five years now, so those furnaces work
courtesy of the generator I suppose. The cost of the generator
seemed astronomical at the time but it's been worth it.
So, you're in a condo and the condo association installed the
generator for the whole building/complex? Annoying bill or surcharge
on fees but excellent wisdom. Next piece of wisdom: someone diligent
and reliable who is tasked with starting the gen set periodically,
checking for expected power output, checking that fuel is topped up
and (if gasoline) not deteriorating, that set remains safe from
flooding or other gradual defects.
We have eight floors so some people would be trapped on high.

The generator automatically turns on every Thursday morning at 10a.m.
and runs for an hour, even did it this a.m. for all it's likely going
to have a good run later on :)
Post by Mike Spencer
The snake skin in my gen set was evidence that I should have been
checking it more often. Last check-up & test run was back in late
October. The Computer Risks Digest has recurring stories about backup
generators for businesses or data processing centres that went
untested or inadequately secured from water for years, then failed
when needed.
Did I tell you about my younger daughter. The one who is a top flight
business person, employing 5 people, soon to be 6? She is so smart
that when the power went Xmas Day and her SO was in Los Angeles, she
didn't know how to turn the generator on hahahahahaha - aah did I ever
tease her about that. I now call her Generator Gal. I texted her
yesterday and asked if she was able to turn it on now cos it looks
like it will need to operate again and she told me to lay off about
the bloody thing, Dave is home but yes, she did learn how to do it.
Post by Mike Spencer
Post by l***@fl.it
For some reason it leaves one plug working in the kitchen in my unit
:)
Basic Nova Scotia essentials, eh? Electric tea kettle, reading lamp.
Nah I am well prepared, have a little primus stove, purchased in
1960s, still works and nice LED lamps which throw excellent light.
Just finished making huge pan of beef soup in case we are out for
sustained period, then I will feed a couple of people whose carers
likely won't come, plus I have over 160 litres of home-made red wine
which should keep the rest of us happy in the lobby as usual :)
axemen99
2018-01-05 23:16:48 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by HRM Resident
Seems like this is going to be a winter from hell. Now they have
the wind gusts hitting 140 kph. A winter version of Juan? Ugh!
Have 50 litres of fresh kerosene and two 90,000 BTU heaters, plus a
generator and 50 litres of fresh gas. We can survive for quite awhile .
. . but this better not be the new norm. Maybe it's like it always was
because we've had some near misses over the past number of years. Looks
like it is our turn this time. It *might* track slightly closer to
Yarmouth than Halifax, but I think the entire mainland is in for it.
Glad I got fuel yesterday . . . a friend of mine just called form
Halifax and said the stores are going nuts with people stocking up.
Are these violent storms the result of us ignoring climate change,
and if so, is it possible to reverse it? Maybe it's always been this
way, but they seem a lot more intense and frequent all over the world.
Could it just be that we just have better reporting, or are the
storms really worse than 30+ years ago?
--
HRM Resident
It’s official: Boston has broken its record for highest tide ever recorded, the National Weather Service says.

The weather service says the tide reached 15.16 feet in the city on Thursday. The old record was 15.1 feet during the Blizzard of 1978.

If this first blizzard of 2018 is NOT fast moving, it will be as bad as the Blizzard of 1978.
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